日本国债收益率持续攀升 冲击民生和金融市场

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.125%, the highest level since February 1999, raising concerns about its impact on global financial markets [1]. Group 1: Factors Driving Yield Increase - The Japanese government's large-scale fiscal expansion policy is a primary driver of rising bond yields, as investor distrust in fiscal sustainability increases the risk premium required for holding long-term Japanese government bonds [3]. - Expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are also contributing to upward pressure on bond yields [3]. Group 2: Economic and Social Impacts - The continuous rise in bond yields is causing multi-layered impacts on Japan's economy and livelihoods, with risks transitioning from financial markets to the real economy [3]. - Increased financing costs due to rising interest rates will significantly inflate interest payments, squeezing fiscal resources and limiting spending on social welfare such as education and healthcare, thereby weakening the government's ability to counter-cyclical economic adjustments [5]. Group 3: Global Financial Market Implications - There are concerns that the sustained increase in Japanese bond yields will disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting emerging markets facing capital outflows [5]. - The rise in Japanese bond yields, combined with anticipated interest rate hikes, has led to a significant increase in the cost of borrowing in yen, triggering large-scale unwinding of carry trades and concentrated sell-offs of overseas assets, impacting global financial markets [7]. - As a major creditor nation, fluctuations in Japan's bond market can directly transmit through international investor networks to core markets like U.S. and German bonds, potentially raising global interest rates and tightening market liquidity [7].