【CBC日评】1月4日萤石小幅上涨

Core Viewpoint - The price of fluorite in China has increased slightly due to a combination of rising demand from the new energy sector and supply constraints caused by environmental regulations and safety standards [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price range for fluorite (CaF2≥97%, SiO2≤1.5; wet powder) is between 3260 and 3360 CNY per ton, with an average price of 3310 CNY per ton, reflecting a rise of 10 CNY per ton from the previous day [3][4]. - Demand from the new energy sector, particularly for lithium hexafluorophosphate and PVDF, is expected to increase by approximately 30,000 tons annually, while traditional refrigerant sectors are seeing a mild recovery in export demand [4][7]. - Domestic fluorite mining is constrained by safety and environmental regulations, maintaining an operating rate of 55%-60%, with no new capacity expected [4][5]. Market Conditions - The supply side is experiencing significant contraction due to dual pressures from resource constraints and environmental policies, leading to a decrease in the overall supply of fluorite [5]. - The northern production areas are facing seasonal reductions in output due to harsh weather, while southern production remains stable but insufficient to cover the northern shortfall [5]. - The logistics and trading sectors are affected by low inventory levels and rising transportation costs, which are exacerbated by tightened environmental policies [6]. Purchasing Trends - The market is characterized by resilient demand despite traditional seasonal slowdowns, with stable purchasing from the refrigerant industry and strong support from emerging sectors like new energy and semiconductors [7]. - The long-term demand for high-quality fluorite is being driven by strategic emerging industries, which helps to absorb cost increases from the supply side [7]. Future Outlook - Prices for fluorite are expected to experience a weak recovery, with limited upward potential due to ongoing supply constraints and rising mining costs [8]. - The balance between strong demand from the new energy sector and persistent supply bottlenecks will dictate future price movements, with cautious optimism prevailing in the market [8].