【环时深度】印巴水资源博弈持续的背后

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing water resource conflict between India and Pakistan, exacerbated by historical grievances and territorial disputes, has intensified due to climate change and recent violent incidents in the Kashmir region, with potential implications for broader conflict if India continues to disrupt water supplies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - The water resource conflict is not new; it has been a recurring issue since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, with significant events leading to tensions, including India's unilateral actions to cut off water supplies [4][6]. - The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, allocated the use of major rivers between the two countries, granting Pakistan rights to the western rivers while India retained rights to the eastern rivers [6][9]. Group 2: Current Developments - Following a violent incident in April 2025, India accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism and suspended its obligations under the Indus Waters Treaty, leading to heightened tensions and accusations from both sides [3][5]. - India has taken concrete actions, such as temporarily halting water flow from the Chenab River and planning to expand the capacity of its water diversion infrastructure, which could significantly impact Pakistan's water supply [5][7]. Group 3: Economic and Social Implications - Pakistan is heavily reliant on the Indus River system, with 90% of its agricultural output depending on it, making the water supply critical for its economy and food security [6][7]. - The population relying on the Indus River has grown significantly since the treaty was signed, increasing the stakes for both countries as water scarcity becomes a pressing issue [7][8]. Group 4: Future Risks - Experts warn that India's actions could lead to severe consequences for Pakistan, potentially pushing it towards conflict if water resources are further threatened [9][10]. - The potential for another war over water resources has been highlighted, with predictions of conflict arising within the next 6 to 10 years if the situation does not improve [10].