“GDP超日本”，印度世界第四含金量几何？

Economic Overview - India's GDP has reached approximately $4.18 trillion, surpassing Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, with projections to grow to $7.3 trillion by 2030 [1][2] - The growth trajectory suggests India may overtake Germany within three years, becoming the third-largest economy globally [1] Consumption and Demographics - A significant driver of India's economic growth is its demographic advantage, with consumption contributing nearly 55% to 60% of GDP [1] - The country has recently become the most populous in the world, with over a quarter of its population aged between 10 and 26, which is expected to bolster consumer spending and investment [1] Government Policies - The Modi government's "Production-Linked Incentive Scheme" aims to stimulate growth by incentivizing local manufacturing in strategic sectors such as electronics, defense, and pharmaceuticals [2] Economic Growth Rate Concerns - Despite reported growth rates of 8.2% for the second quarter of FY2025, some economists argue that the actual growth rate may only be between 2.5% and 3% due to discrepancies in data collection and economic modeling [4][5] - Critics highlight that the reliance on outdated benchmarks and the exclusion of informal sector activities may distort the true economic picture [4][6] Structural Issues - A review of 22 core economic indicators revealed that only 9 showed growth, indicating underlying structural issues within the economy [6] - Key sectors such as mining and energy are underperforming, with mining growth nearly stagnant at 0.04% and electricity demand declining to a growth rate of 4.4% [6] Comparison with Japan - While India's nominal GDP exceeds Japan's, the quality of growth is questioned, as India's expansion is largely driven by the service sector rather than a robust industrial base [6] - India's per capita GDP of approximately $2,800 suggests that the economy is still in a phase of scale expansion without sufficient depth in industrial development, highlighting a significant gap compared to mature East Asian manufacturing economies [6]