2026年财政政策如何更加积极？丨杨志勇专栏

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the need for policy optimization, enhanced fiscal management, and reform to ensure effective implementation [2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Optimization - The scale of fiscal expenditure is increasing, with general public budget expenditure expected to approach 30 trillion yuan in 2025 and exceed 30 trillion yuan in 2026, but its proportion relative to total social financing remains small [3]. - By the end of November 2025, the social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan, and the broad money (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, indicating a need for improved efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal funds [3]. - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4%, necessitating a focus on policy effectiveness and alignment between fiscal and monetary policies in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Debt Financing - Debt financing is crucial for supporting a more proactive fiscal policy, with a need for scientific evaluation and optimization of government bond types, including general bonds and special bonds [4]. - In 2025, local special bond issuance is expected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, with total local debt issuance surpassing 10 trillion yuan and net financing exceeding 7.2 trillion yuan [4]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds and special bonds for capital replenishment of state-owned banks highlights the importance of effectively utilizing debt funds [4]. Group 3: Local Fiscal Autonomy - Enhancing local fiscal autonomy is essential for fiscal sustainability, with central government transfers to localities exceeding 10 trillion yuan annually from 2023 to 2025 [5]. - The structure of transfer payments needs optimization, reducing the proportion of special transfers and increasing general transfers to enhance local fiscal capacity [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Management - Effective fiscal management is increasingly important as fiscal revenues and expenditures grow, requiring a shift from simple revenue and expenditure management to a more comprehensive governance approach [6]. - The need for zero-based budgeting reform is emphasized to address the issues of rigid expenditure patterns and ensure that budget allocations reflect actual needs [7]. Group 5: Economic Stability and Reform - A more proactive fiscal policy is necessary to promote stable economic development, requiring a combination of effective markets and active government roles to stimulate market vitality [9]. - The need to enhance domestic demand and consumer spending is highlighted, with a focus on increasing disposable income to support consumption growth [9]. Group 6: Supply-Side Improvements - There is significant room for improvement in domestic supply to meet the evolving demands of consumer upgrades, necessitating continuous supply-side reforms [11]. - Innovation in supply is crucial for transforming potential demand into actual demand, with fiscal policy playing a supportive role in fostering technological and industrial innovation [12].