2026年汇市展望：美日货币政策分化延续 利差仍是汇率核心驱动力

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant "V-shaped" trend in 2025, ending a four-year upward trajectory, with year-end trading above 156, approaching the intervention threshold of 160 set by Japanese authorities [1][2]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - At the beginning of 2025, the USD/JPY continued its strong performance from 2024, reaching a peak of 158.88. However, it quickly fell to a low of 139.88 in late April due to multiple policy risks, including tariffs announced by Trump and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - The mid-year saw the USD/JPY fluctuate between 140 and 150, influenced by ongoing policy uncertainties and the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ambiguous stance on future rate hikes [4][10]. Monetary Policy Normalization - 2025 marked a historic turning point for Japan's monetary policy, with the BOJ raising interest rates twice, culminating in a year-end rate of 0.75%, the highest since 1995. This shift was driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and signs of wage growth [5][6]. - The BOJ's communication strategy evolved from a cautious approach to proactive guidance, confirming the sustainability of inflation and indicating a clear path towards normalization [9][10]. Economic Performance - Japan's economy is projected to achieve a 1.0% real GDP growth in 2025, significantly higher than the 0.1% growth in 2024, primarily driven by domestic demand [10][12]. - Private consumption is expected to be the main growth driver, with a contribution rate of 101.25% to GDP growth in Q3, supported by wage increases and government energy subsidies [10][11]. Structural Challenges - Despite the monetary policy shift, Japan's economy faces structural challenges, including high fiscal deficits and trade imbalances, which continue to weaken the yen's fundamental support [4][10]. - The labor market remains tight, with an unemployment rate around 2.5%, but the number of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises has reached a 12-year high, highlighting ongoing structural pressures [10][12]. Future Outlook - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is expected to continue influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate in 2026, with the potential for long-term investment opportunities in this currency pair [12][13]. - Japan's government is likely to maintain an expansionary fiscal stance, which may stimulate short-term growth but could exacerbate fiscal pressures, posing significant uncertainties for the macroeconomic landscape in 2026 [12][13].