多重利好消息提振，碳酸锂期价迎来“开门红”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a strong upward trend, with the main LC2506 contract surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton, driven by optimistic market sentiment despite no significant changes in the fundamental market conditions compared to before the holiday [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 5, 2026, the LC2506 contract increased by 7.74% to 129,980 yuan/ton [3][10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of the "old for new" subsidy policy for heavy trucks and passenger cars, which has improved market expectations for electric vehicle demand in Q1 2026 [3][10]. - Analysts believe that the current price increase in lithium carbonate is largely influenced by multiple positive news factors, reflecting a more optimistic market atmosphere [3][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate are showing signs of marginal weakening, with a reported 6% decrease in downstream demand and a 2.5% decrease in supply for January 2026 [5][12]. - Despite the decrease in demand, it is better than previous market expectations, with battery production remaining strong [5][12]. - As of December 25, 2025, lithium carbonate weekly inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons, indicating that inventory depletion may be nearing its end [5][13]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains positive, but there are concerns about potential downward pressures due to a decrease in new energy vehicle wholesale sales, which fell by 8% month-on-month in December 2025 [6][12]. - Analysts suggest that while the current market conditions are favorable, the short-term price increase may be excessive, and the rising costs of battery materials could impact the growth of energy storage [6][14]. - Future demand expectations remain strong, but the market's emotional response to price changes is significant, with potential risks of a return to lower expectations [7][14].