中信证券：2026年亚太新兴经济体经济增长或将温和降温 内需驱动型经济体或更具韧性

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to show unexpected resilience in 2025, although some driving factors may weaken in 2026, with export-oriented economies facing greater pressure while domestic demand-driven markets may remain more resilient [1][2] Economic Outlook - The CLSA analysis suggests that, in the context of high base effects, economic growth in Asia-Pacific emerging economies may moderate, while low inflation allows for some monetary policy easing [2] - Due to the unexpected performance in the first half of 2025, growth forecasts for most Asia-Pacific emerging economies have been revised upward, but expectations for 2026 remain conservative due to high base effects in exports [2] Country-Specific Insights India - India's economic growth is expected to remain stable but with weakening momentum, and low inflation provides room for a loose monetary policy [3] Malaysia - Malaysia shows strong economic momentum but may experience marginal slowdown; inflation is expected to rise slightly due to tax policies and base effects, with the central bank likely to maintain interest rates in 2026 [4] Indonesia - Indonesia's focus has shifted to fiscal incentives and job creation to support long-term growth, but short-term growth momentum remains weak; inflation has unexpectedly decreased, and the central bank maintains a neutral stance on interest rates [5] Thailand - Thailand's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to tourism; ongoing deflationary pressures may lead to continued monetary easing [6] Philippines - The Philippines is experiencing weak economic growth, with low inflation providing space for future monetary easing; the central bank has signaled a hawkish stance to balance exchange rate pressures [7][8] Singapore - Singapore's economic growth exceeded expectations but is likely to slow down; inflation remains stable, supporting a neutral monetary policy stance [9] Vietnam - Vietnam's manufacturing sector shows significant recovery, but external demand pressures may shift growth focus towards domestic demand; inflation is expected to moderate, allowing for continued monetary easing [10]