美委地缘局势升级，沥青、原油走势“此起彼伏”

Group 1 - The core event is the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife by the U.S. military, marking a shift from economic sanctions to direct regime change efforts, escalating tensions significantly [2][10] - On the first trading day after the New Year holiday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by nearly 1%, while the domestic SC main contract dropped close to 3.4% [2][10] - In contrast, asphalt futures experienced a significant jump, with the main contract rising over 3200 yuan/ton, peaking at a 6.3% increase before closing with a nearly 4% gain [2][10] Group 2 - The domestic futures market showed a divergence between BU and SC, with previous indications suggesting that the U.S.-Venezuela conflict would have limited impact on oil price premiums, failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices [3][11] - Historical data indicates that the sustained impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices depends on whether they cause large-scale, long-term supply disruptions [3][11] - According to EIA data, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be between 970,000 and 1,040,000 barrels per day by 2025, accounting for only 0.94% to 0.96% of global supply, meaning that even a supply disruption would not significantly drive oil prices higher [3][11] Group 3 - Asphalt emerged as the strongest performer among oil futures due to the U.S. military action on January 3, which severely impacted Venezuelan oil exports and heightened concerns over asphalt raw material supply shortages [5][13] - Venezuela's heavy crude oil has a high asphalt yield of 60% and is favored by Chinese independent refineries due to its low price [5][13] - In 2025, Chinese independent refineries are expected to import approximately 393,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil, with imports typically accounting for 50% to 70% of Venezuela's export volume [5][13]