MNC早研已死，投行永生：中国创新药大时代

Core Insights - The current recovery cycle of China's innovative pharmaceuticals is driven by significant industry trends, particularly the shift in multinational corporations (MNCs) from a comprehensive full-chain model to a more focused approach [1][17]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The "anti-Moore's Law" indicates that the number of new drugs produced per $1 billion in R&D investment is halving every nine years, highlighting a decline in productivity within the pharmaceutical industry [2][18]. - The R&D return on investment for leading pharmaceutical companies has plummeted from 10.1% in 2010 to just 1.2% in 2022, attributed to bureaucratic inefficiencies and risk aversion towards early-stage R&D [2][19]. - MNCs are increasingly relying on external solutions for drug development, as the failure rate for drug discovery is over 90%, making the acquisition of late-stage projects a more attractive option [3][20]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - MNCs are consciously reducing internal early-stage R&D and expanding their mid-to-late stage pipelines through external collaborations and acquisitions, reflecting a trend towards a more investment banking-like approach [4][21]. - The essential capabilities for MNCs now include pipeline valuation and mergers & acquisitions, as well as large-scale clinical trial management and commercialization [5][22]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The structural changes in the global pharmaceutical industry present a significant strategic opportunity for China's innovative drug sector, which can fill the gap in early-stage assets due to its unique advantages [6][23]. - The number and quality of external business development (BD) transactions for Chinese innovative drugs have surged, with total licensing deals reaching $135.655 billion in 2025, more than doubling from 2024 [7][24]. - Chinese innovative drug companies are becoming highly sought-after assets, as evidenced by the rapid growth of the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF, which increased from over 400 million yuan to over 2.1 billion yuan in 2025 [9][26]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Collaborating with MNCs allows Chinese innovative drug companies to gain essential cash flow and efficient growth methods, while also learning about global regulatory standards and complex clinical operations [11][28]. - The long-term outlook for China's innovative drug sector is promising, with expectations of developing its own global pharmaceutical giants in the future [14][28]. - The recent performance of innovative drug assets in the stock market, including a significant rise in the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF, indicates strong market confidence in this sector [16][28].