【好文重读】为什么2026年的港股可以乐观看待？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market performed well in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, indicating a "slow bull" market. The Hang Seng Index also saw a year-to-date increase of over 28% by December 29, 2025, despite fluctuations throughout the year. Major institutions like UBS, Standard Chartered, HSBC, and Guotai Junan remain optimistic, predicting the Hang Seng Index could exceed 30,000 points in 2026 [1][13][14]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Optimism for 2026 - The Hong Kong stock market possesses unique assets not found in the A-share market, particularly leading companies in technology, biomedicine, new economy, and the internet, which are essential for investors looking to benefit from China's industrial upgrade and new productive forces [1][15]. - Liquidity in the Hong Kong market is improving, with a record net inflow of southbound funds exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year, reflecting confidence from mainland investors. Additionally, global central banks' shift towards looser monetary policies is expected to attract more foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market [2][15]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's price-to-earnings ratio at approximately 23 times, which is lower than the NASDAQ 100's 36 times and the A-share ChiNext's 41 times, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [2][15]. Group 2: Key Investment Directions for 2026 - The primary driver of the Hong Kong market's upward movement in 2025 was "valuation recovery," as market sentiment shifted from extreme pessimism to a return to reasonable value. The market is expected to evolve towards a more complex but healthier direction, focusing not only on valuation elasticity but also on actual performance improvements [3][16]. - Key sectors to watch include: - Hard Technology: This sector is crucial for China's industrial transformation, focusing on chips and high-end manufacturing, driven by AI demand and national strategies for self-sufficiency [3][16]. - Internet: Major internet companies have transitioned to stable profitability and high-quality development. The application of AI in business is expected to create new growth opportunities for these companies [4][17]. - Innovative Pharmaceuticals: This sector has shown significant growth, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index rising 69.1% in 2025. The sector's logic for 2026 is solid, with many domestic innovative drug companies reaching commercialization and profitability [4][17]. Group 3: Investment Tools for Target Sectors - A set of ETFs has been identified to align with the discussed sectors: - Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131): Focuses on the chip industry, with approximately 70% in hardware and 30% in software, targeting hard technology and AI demand [5][19]. - Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770): Concentrates on core internet assets, including major players like Alibaba and Tencent, benefiting from AI advancements and potential value reassessment [5][22]. - Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (520880): Targets high-growth biotech companies, emphasizing a concentrated portfolio with over 70% in top holdings, suitable for investors seeking high growth potential [5][24].