避险支撑短线走强 美元中长期仍承压

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the US dollar shows a "short-term strong, long-term weak" divergence, supported by geopolitical risk aversion but constrained by fundamental pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is the main anchor for dollar fluctuations, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points in 2025, bringing the current federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [1]. - The December meeting indicated a potential further rate cut in 2026, but recent statements from officials reveal a division, with some suggesting the Fed is close to halting rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US military action against Venezuela has heightened global risk aversion, leading to a short-term inflow of funds into dollar assets, which has been a key driver for the recent dollar rebound [2]. - However, analysts believe that a single geopolitical event is unlikely to reverse the long-term trend, as the dollar index fell by 9.41% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017 due to weakening US economic conditions and "de-dollarization" trends [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a short-term oscillation pattern, with resistance at the 100 level and support around 97.50, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [2]. - Technical indicators show limited momentum, with the short-term moving average system not providing a clear trend signal, and the RSI not entering the strong buy zone [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with short-term support from geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed statements [3]. - Long-term downward pressures persist due to the continuation of the Fed's rate cut cycle, weakening US economic resilience, and ongoing issues related to the twin deficits and global central bank diversification [3].