天然橡胶：短时多空博弈仍存 关注海外产区原料情况

Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, cup rubber is priced at 51.75 Thai Baht/kg (+2.26), and latex at 54.70 Thai Baht/kg (+0.50) [1] - Hainan private rubber is at 15,000 Yuan/ton, Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,890 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed rubber at 14,850 Yuan/ton (+150) [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month-on-month, but down 8.37 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month-on-month, but up 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.86 days, up 0.38 days month-on-month and up 5.64 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 43.78 days, up 1.87 days month-on-month and down 0.41 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export Data and Market Dynamics - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2] - The total export of standard rubber was 1.338 million tons, down 18% year-on-year; however, the export of smoked sheet rubber increased by 24% to 392,000 tons, and latex exports rose by 8% to 673,000 tons [2] - Exports to China amounted to 945,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with smoked sheet rubber exports to China surging by 248% [2] - Overall, Thailand's total natural and mixed rubber exports reached 4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with exports to China at 2.518 million tons, up 24% [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Supply-side improvements in overseas major producing areas are expected to pressure raw material prices, while factory restocking demand supports limited downside [2] - Post-holiday downstream replenishment is cautious, leading to weak purchasing sentiment for Thai mixed rubber, with significant inventory accumulation in Tianjin [2] - The market for natural rubber is characterized by ongoing competition between bullish and bearish sentiments, with previous short positions recommended to be maintained [2]