合成橡胶：基本面支撑有限 BR跟随商品波动

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8950 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 (+50) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3200 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 5 (+25) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [2] Industry Insights - On January 5, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,645 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the previous day's settlement price [2] - Starting from the second half of January, three domestic butadiene facilities are expected to gradually restart, influenced by anticipated increases in exports and decreases in imports, which may lead to a reduction in net import volumes; however, overall supply is expected to remain ample, and port inventories are projected to stay at high levels [2] - The styrene-butadiene rubber facility at Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance and restart in mid to late January 2026 [2] - Demand from the tire and other rubber product industries is expected to remain stable, with some pre-Spring Festival stocking demand; however, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February [2] - Overall, limited cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics suggest significant resistance to price increases for BR in January, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [2] Short-term Outlook - The short-term price range for BR2602 is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 12,000 CNY/ton [2]