着眼于2026年经济“开门红”，哪些政策可能靠前发力？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with a focus on early fiscal actions compared to a cautious approach to further monetary easing [1][7]. Fiscal Policy - The National Fiscal Work Conference outlined five key areas for a more proactive fiscal policy, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, improving transfer payment efficiency, continuously optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing fiscal-financial collaboration [1][7]. - The Ministry of Finance announced a new policy regarding the value-added tax on personal housing sales, which stipulates a 3% tax for properties sold within two years and exemption for those sold after two years [1][7]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held a meeting indicating a continuation of the central economic work meeting's stance on monetary policy, without explicitly mentioning flexible use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions [1][7]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will rely more on structural tools, with a possibility of RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in the first quarter of 2026 [2][9]. Equipment Update and Consumption Policies - The State Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and consumption "trade-in" policy for 2026, optimizing the previous year's policies [2][9]. - The subsidy for household appliances has been narrowed from 12 categories to 6, focusing on energy-efficient products, while the automotive subsidies will shift from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price [3][10]. Special Bonds and Investment - The issuance of special bonds is expected to be expedited, with applications for 2026 being submitted two months earlier than in 2025, aiming for early effectiveness in infrastructure investment [4][10]. - Analysts noted that approximately 1.4 trillion yuan of bond funds issued in the first 11 months of 2025 had not yet resulted in actual expenditures, indicating ample fiscal resources for the upcoming year [4][10]. Economic Outlook - The proactive fiscal measures are expected to support economic growth, with early issuance of special bonds likely to create a peak in funding in the first quarter of 2026 [4][10]. - The PBOC is anticipated to adopt a cautious approach to traditional monetary easing, focusing instead on flexible liquidity management tools to maintain financial stability while supporting growth [5][11].