Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is maintaining a strong oscillating trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies, commodity prices, and inflation data between Australia and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has indicated rising uncertainty regarding the sufficiency of current restrictive policies, with expectations for at least two rate hikes in 2026, potentially starting as early as February, depending on the upcoming CPI report [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with increasing internal disagreements on the pace of future cuts, leading to a cautious approach among officials [1]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Economic Outlook - The Australian dollar benefits from its status as a commodity currency, with rising prices for key exports like gold and iron ore, and the Australian government has raised its forecasts for commodity export revenues [2]. - The weakening US dollar index provides additional support for the AUD, with expectations of continued declines due to factors like interest rate cuts and fiscal deficits [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently in a strong upward trend, supported by technical indicators such as the 9-day moving average and a relative strength index of 64.22, indicating strong momentum without entering overbought territory [2]. - Key resistance is identified at the 14-month high of 0.6727, with potential for further upward movement towards 0.6840 if this level is breached [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The AUD is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium to long term, supported by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and structural weaknesses in the USD [3]. - Short-term risks include potential economic outperformance in the US, slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, or a slowdown in the Chinese economy affecting commodity demand, which could lead to a temporary pullback in the AUD [3].
加息预期下澳元逼近14个月高位
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-06 02:17