Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-06 02:19Core Insights - Oral weight loss medications are projected to capture 24% of the global weight loss therapy market by 2030, translating to a market size of approximately $22 billion based on an overall weight loss drug market of about $95 billion [1][2] Group 1: Novo Nordisk's Oral Semaglutide - Novo Nordisk's oral version of GLP-1 weight loss drug, semaglutide, was officially launched in the U.S. on January 5, just two weeks after FDA approval [1] - The stock price of Novo Nordisk surged over 5% following the launch, while competitor Eli Lilly's stock fell by 3.6% [1] - The monthly treatment cost for self-paying patients ranges from $149 to $299, significantly reduced from the initial $1,000 monthly cost of the injectable version [1] - The starting dose of oral semaglutide is 1.5 mg, priced at $149 per month, with a planned price increase for higher doses after April 15 [1] Group 2: Clinical Trial Results - In a Phase III clinical trial involving over 300 obese but non-diabetic adults, patients on the highest dose of oral semaglutide lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight after 64 weeks, with an average weight loss of 13.6% overall [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug, orforglipron, is expected to receive approval in the first quarter of this year, with clinical data showing an average weight loss of 10.5% at the highest dose [2] - The oral weight loss therapy market is becoming a competitive battleground among major pharmaceutical companies [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that Eli Lilly's oral drug could capture about 60% of the oral weight loss drug market, valued at approximately $13.6 billion, while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is expected to hold around 21% of the market, worth about $4 billion [2]