金鹰基金杨晓斌：关注科技变革、出海优势、供给受限三大主线

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to have significant potential in 2026, despite recent high volatility and a cautious sentiment among investors [1][7]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - A-shares are currently valued below historical averages, presenting a "valuation pit" advantage compared to international markets [1][7]. - The market's rational behavior reflects a correction of overly pessimistic expectations from previous years, primarily in specific growth and cyclical sectors rather than across the board [1][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is likely to be friendly towards the stock market, with nominal GDP and corporate profit growth expected to rise from previous lows in 2026 [2][8]. - The central economic work conference indicates limited fiscal and monetary space in the first half of 2026, which may constrain domestic demand across various sectors, including real estate, automotive, and infrastructure [2][8]. Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified for 2026: 1. New demand driven by technological advancements [2][8]. 2. Opportunities in overseas markets [2][8]. 3. Industries with significant supply constraints [2][8]. Sector Focus - The AI sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with increased global capital expenditure driving demand for computing power, semiconductors, and industrial metals [3][9]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drug exports, is expected to benefit from China's engineering talent, with more products likely to enter international markets in 2026 [3][9]. Supply Constraints - The supply of non-ferrous metals is expected to remain limited, with prices likely to continue rising due to constrained exploration and geopolitical factors [4][10]. - The chemical sector may also see price stabilization or rebounds due to a lack of new production capacity in certain areas [4][10].