华泰期货：焦煤昨日下跌，累库趋势未见缓解

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant decline in the price of coking coal, with a drop of 3.14% in the 2605 contract [2][9] Group 2 - The primary reason for the price drop is the expected increase in supply due to accelerated coal mine resumption after New Year's, with no reduction in imported coal and a rapid recovery in Mongolian coal customs clearance [3][9] - Coking coal inventories have been increasing for six consecutive weeks, while upstream coal mines have seen eight weeks of inventory accumulation, leading to market concerns despite absolute inventory levels being lower than the same period last year [3][9] - Demand recovery remains uncertain, as steel mills have reduced production, resulting in low molten iron output, and actual resumption of blast furnaces will depend on steel mill profits and expectations [3][9] - The support for thermal coal prices has weakened, with no significant improvement in fundamentals and a month-on-month decline in thermal coal prices, leading to a divergence between thermal and coking coal prices [3][9] Group 3 - Overall, the supply and demand for coking coal are relatively loose, with the accumulation trend not easing, and the market outlook remains pessimistic, resulting in weak price performance [10] - There is still an expectation for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide some support for coal prices, but after replenishment, prices may loosen again [10]