国际石脑油市场2026年将延续分化态势

Group 1 - The global naphtha market is currently in a state of divergence, with expectations of this trend continuing into 2026 [1] - In Asia, the market faces pressure from weak petrochemical profits due to ongoing capacity optimization and uncertainties in Russian naphtha supply [1] - The European naphtha market is primarily characterized by structural contraction, while the US market is expected to experience a moderate recovery [1] Group 2 - In Asia, the restructuring plan of the South Korean petrochemical industry is a key focus, with plans to reduce ethylene capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year by August 2025 [1] - Japan's naphtha demand is declining due to low petrochemical product profits and planned facility shutdowns, with significant reductions in ethylene production capacity in the Chiba region [2] - The uncertainty of Russian supply has led to decreased purchasing interest from buyers in Asia, although the overall market supply remains adequate [2] Group 3 - In Europe, traditional oil-based naphtha demand is expected to decrease at an annual rate of 1.2% due to deepening carbon neutrality policies and refinery shutdowns [3] - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will increase production costs by $25 per ton, further suppressing demand [3] - In the US, naphtha demand growth is projected to rebound to 1.8% due to the easing of ethane substitution effects and new petrochemical projects coming online [3]