全球经济分化中前行

Group 1: Economic Resilience in Asia - The core theme for Asia's economy in 2026 is "resilience," with stable exports despite challenges from U.S. trade protectionism, driven by strong AI demand and effective transshipment trade [1][2] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.6% economic growth for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026, with East Asia's growth expected to be 4.1% due to strong external demand, particularly for electronics [3] - The MasterCard Economic Institute highlights that inflation is expected to remain low and stable in Asia, with a projected inflation rate of 2.1% for 2026 [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - Central banks in Asia are expected to have inconsistent monetary policies in 2026, with some countries like South Korea and Malaysia ending their easing cycles, while others like the Philippines may consider rate cuts [5][6] - Japan's core inflation is projected to remain above 2%, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates [6] Group 3: Technology and AI Investment - AI-related goods were a major driver of global trade growth in early 2025, with Asia contributing nearly two-thirds of this growth, and the World Trade Organization predicts AI could boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [7] - The demand for AI chips is expected to rise significantly, with major cloud service providers projected to increase capital expenditures by 40% to 60% in 2026, benefiting countries like South Korea [7][8] - AI investment is anticipated to remain a key theme in Asian markets, with expectations of continued growth in technology sectors due to demographic changes and increased technology adoption [8] Group 4: European Economic Outlook - The European economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, with the OECD predicting a GDP growth rate of about 1.0% for the Eurozone [10][11] - Structural challenges such as population aging and low productivity growth are expected to constrain Europe's potential growth rate [11] - The European Central Bank has adjusted its inflation forecast for the Eurozone to approximately 1.9% for 2026, indicating a gradual return to target levels [13] Group 5: U.S. Economic Projections - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a moderate pace in 2026, with GDP growth estimates ranging from 2.0% to 2.6% [22][24] - Key factors influencing U.S. economic growth include a shift in monetary policy, fiscal support, and resilience in consumer and business spending [24] - AI investment is expected to create a "super cycle," with a focus on profitability rather than just growth potential in 2026 [26]