新湖有色（铜）2026年报：宏观&基本面强驱动，铜价有望再创辉煌

Macro Analysis - The focus of Trump's policies is shifting towards stabilizing growth amid the U.S. midterm elections, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a continuation of global fiscal and monetary expansion trends. The U.S. economy is expected to recover from a slowdown, which will support copper prices [3] - In China, the proactive policy line will continue into the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, contributing to an increase in macroeconomic sentiment that will help copper prices reach new levels [3] Copper Pricing Logic - Global copper demand is transitioning from being driven by incremental consumption in China to a rapid growth expectation for copper needed in AI infrastructure, including data centers, power systems, and energy storage [3] - Historical data indicates that mining gross margins need to remain above 40% to encourage capital expenditure, with a copper price of $12,000 per ton potentially serving as a bottom support level [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper mine supply growth is expected to remain low at around 2% from 2026 to 2028, with refined copper production growth projected to fall below 2% in 2026. Energy storage and AI data centers are anticipated to become strong growth points for copper consumption, alongside global grid upgrades [4] - By 2026, a copper supply shortage of 330,000 tons is expected, increasing to 630,000 tons in 2027, driven by the U.S. siphoning off refined copper [4] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to a substantial supply-demand imbalance. The expected price fluctuation range for copper in 2026 is projected to rise to $10,000 to $15,000 per ton, depending on the recovery of the global economy [4] - The arbitrage opportunity is anticipated to continue, with a strong external market and a weaker domestic market structure [4] Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, resulting in a 31% year-on-year decline in imports in August and a 39% decline in September [14] - The tariffs have caused a substantial drop in copper material imports, which will be compensated by increased domestic processing capacity and operational rates [14][18] U.S. Copper Consumption - U.S. copper consumption is projected to grow by 4% in 2025, driven by AI data center construction and grid upgrades, with an expected increase of 135,000 tons in copper consumption [15] - The anticipated increase in copper consumption from 2025 to 2026 is expected to total 450,000 tons, despite a significant increase in net imports in 2025 [18] Global Copper Supply Challenges - The global copper mine supply is facing disruptions, with a growth rate revised down to 0.5% for 2025 due to various incidents affecting major mines [22][25] - The overall copper supply growth is expected to be limited, with domestic companies contributing most of the incremental supply in 2026 [24] Recycled Copper Dynamics - The supply of recycled copper is expected to remain tight, with a significant portion flowing to the smelting sector to address raw material shortages [31][34] - The implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy in 2024 is anticipated to impact the production rates of recycled copper rods, with a potential decline in operational rates due to increased tax burdens [32][34] Future Consumption Trends - The demand for copper is expected to be driven by AI, energy storage, and grid upgrades, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar experiencing slower growth rates [45][54] - The global demand for copper in energy storage systems is projected to increase significantly, with an expected rise from 270,000 tons in 2025 to 500,000 tons in 2026 [55]