华泰期货：烧碱昨日下跌，后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in caustic soda futures prices is primarily driven by a combination of falling spot market prices, increased inventory levels, and seasonal demand fluctuations in the non-aluminum sector [2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Caustic soda futures prices dropped sharply, with the main contract SH2603 closing down by 3.82% [2][8]. - The spot market continues to decline, with regional procurement prices being consecutively lowered. In Shandong, the procurement price for 32% caustic soda has fallen to 660 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi, the price for 50% caustic soda was reduced by 100 yuan to 2440 yuan/ton [2][8]. - In Guangxi, the procurement price for 50% caustic soda decreased by 150 yuan to 3100 yuan/ton due to delays in new aluminum oxide production capacity and a lack of concentrated restocking [2][8]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Liquid caustic soda prices are also declining, with chlor-alkali companies showing a stronger willingness to maintain liquid chlorine prices. Shandong Xinfan raised its liquid chlorine ex-factory price by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/ton [2][8]. - The high operating rates of chlor-alkali plants are maintaining a high supply of caustic soda, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance [2][8]. - Caustic soda inventories are accumulating again, particularly in Shandong and Jiangsu. The inventory for fixed liquid caustic soda samples from companies with over 200,000 tons reached 48.57 million tons, an increase of 9.83% month-on-month and 72.72% year-on-year [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In January, there are fewer planned maintenance activities for caustic soda production facilities, which means supply pressure is unlikely to ease [3][9]. - The non-aluminum downstream sector is entering a seasonal decline in production, and medium to long-term demand for caustic soda is expected to contract due to anti-competitive policies affecting aluminum oxide [3][9]. - The current weak supply-demand situation for caustic soda will require close monitoring of production facility maintenance dynamics and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [3][9].