华泰期货：石油沥青上涨，看清背后的驱动因素

Core Viewpoint - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract BU2602 rising by 3.95% as of the afternoon close [7][8]. Group 1: Market Drivers - The primary driver for the price surge was the U.S. airstrike on Venezuela and the control of President Maduro, which heightened market concerns over asphalt raw materials and led to an increase in asphalt dilution spreads [8]. - Venezuelan Merey crude oil, which accounts for approximately 40% of domestic asphalt production, is facing supply issues, causing market sentiment to rise and spot prices to rebound significantly, resonating with the futures market [8]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Although the situation in Venezuela remains uncertain, the U.S. control over President Maduro suggests that oil logistics to Asia from Venezuela are likely to remain disrupted, with no shipments expected to Asia after mid-December [8]. - The recent adjustments in U.S. national strategy may lead to increased influence and military presence in South America, indicating that Venezuelan oil resources could be more tightly controlled by the U.S., which may tighten the supply of Merey crude oil and elevate the cost base for asphalt [8]. - The current fundamentals of asphalt suggest that there are opportunities to buy on dips and consider positive spreads, but caution is advised against excessive chasing of prices [3][8].