光伏行业：冬天到了，春天还会远吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a new adjustment phase, with a consensus among experts that the focus should shift from speed to quality through standards and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Status and Trends - The keyword for 2025 in the photovoltaic industry is "change," encompassing shifts in development conditions, concepts, and new pathways for industry growth [2]. - The industry is experiencing a recovery from "involution" competition, with measures being implemented to stabilize prices across the supply chain, indicating a gradual restoration of competitive order [2][3]. - From January to November 2025, 140 tracked bidding projects with a total capacity of 116.69 GW were reported, with an overall slight increase in the average price of components [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Responses - The industry faces internal challenges as the "anti-involution" efforts continue, and a new paradigm centered on value creation has yet to be established [3]. - Externally, the international trade environment is becoming increasingly complex, with developed countries imposing stricter measures on Chinese photovoltaic products and renewed trade frictions with emerging markets [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Standards - Experts emphasize that innovation and standards are key to overcoming challenges, advocating for a shift from a growth model focused on scale to one prioritizing quality [4]. - The industry is encouraged to collaborate on self-regulation and supply chain coordination to create a healthy ecosystem, while also focusing on technological innovation and intellectual property protection [4]. - The standardization efforts in the photovoltaic sector are evolving to cover various levels, including national and international standards, with a focus on quality reliability and new battery technologies [5]. Group 4: Future Development and Opportunities - Despite short-term challenges, the photovoltaic industry is expected to transition to a higher quality and more sustainable development phase, supported by national strategies and collective industry efforts [6]. - The industry is projected to focus on distributed energy development, with significant growth opportunities in zero-carbon factories, rural areas, and integrated energy solutions [7]. - The Chinese market demand for photovoltaic installations is anticipated to stabilize above 200 GW and potentially exceed 300 GW, with global demand expected to reach 1,000 GW within 5-6 years [7]. - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control policies is expected to create a favorable environment for the photovoltaic sector [7]. Group 5: Cost Competitiveness - Over the past 20 years, the photovoltaic sector has achieved significant cost reductions, with generation costs now lower than coal power, and has reached parity with coal fuel costs within five years [8]. - The absolute cost advantage and the diverse application scenarios of photovoltaic technology are expected to enhance its competitiveness despite market challenges [8].