Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2026-01-06 02:44Core Viewpoint - December oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent crude averaging $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [2] Supply Side - OPEC+ plans to fully exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025, and on September 7, 2025, it was decided to lift the voluntary production cut agreement of 1.66 million barrels per day reached in April 2023 within 12 months [2] - OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025, but decided to suspend the production increase plan for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons during the meeting on November 30 [2] Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global crude oil demand of 830,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 860,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [3] - According to OPEC, IEA, and EIA reports, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.85, and 103.94 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 130, 83, and 114 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry in China is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures as outlined in the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" released by seven ministries in September 2025 [4] - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the timing of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity releases [4] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2026 is projected to be between $55 and $65 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be between $52 and $62 per barrel [4] - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), China Petroleum (601857), Satellite Chemical (002648), and CNOOC Development (600968) [4]