2026年1月豆粕市场驱动因素梳理

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal spot prices in December increased month-on-month, driven by state reserve auctions of imported soybeans and tighter customs policies, with expectations for January prices to remain stable but fluctuate during the month [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in December was 3090 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from November, a 0.98% increase, and up 190 CNY/ton year-on-year, a 6.55% increase [1]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis as of December 31 was 340 CNY/ton, an increase of 305 CNY/ton from December 1 [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - Soybean supply is expected to decline seasonally, but remains generally loose, with forecasts for soybean arrivals in January to March at 748 million tons, 520 million tons, and 530 million tons respectively [3]. - Domestic production enterprises have high inventory levels, with soybean stocks at 6.387 million tons and soybean meal stocks at 1.119 million tons as of December 26, 2025, indicating a potential downward trend in inventory levels entering January [3]. Group 3: International Market Influences - Brazil's soybean harvest is underway, with a reported progress of 0.1% as of December 27, 2025, which may pressure U.S. soybean exports and subsequently affect domestic soybean meal prices [4]. - The market is closely monitoring the U.S. soybean supply and demand report in January for potential adjustments to production estimates [4]. Group 4: Demand Factors - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an anticipated increase in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in livestock farming, which supports soybean meal demand [5]. - Feed manufacturers are expected to increase their purchasing as their contract inventories are relatively low, providing additional support for soybean meal demand [5].