天风策略：春季行情的线索与启示

Core Conclusion - The degree of divergence in the spring market can be seen as a sign of the cyclical transition between bear and bull markets, indicating the beginning of style rotation [3][27] - The new main line emerging from the spring market window is expected to continue to outperform for 1-2 years after the style is established [3][27] - The spring market is influenced by expectations of reversals in the previous year's annual reports and certainty in the next year's reports [3][27] Group 1: Spring Market Insights - The variance in the rise and fall of primary and secondary industries during the spring market serves as a measure of its divergence, with higher divergence years often marking long-term cyclical transitions [4][31] - Historical examples include 2013, 2015, 2019, 2021, and the anticipated 2024, where high divergence indicated significant market shifts [4][31] - In 2019, the spring market saw a significant shift where growth outperformed value, leading to a three-year dominance of growth stocks [4][33] Group 2: Style Rotation and Market Performance - The spring market's divergence also initiates style rotation, as seen in 2019 and 2021, where growth stocks outperformed value stocks and large-cap blue chips accelerated to their peaks [4][33] - The new main line from the spring market is expected to sustain its advantage for 1-2 years, as demonstrated by the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors leading the market in 2019 and 2020 [10][35] - The performance of industries during the spring market often correlates with their performance in the subsequent year, with a negative correlation observed between the month before the spring market and the spring market itself [11][35] Group 3: PPI and Market Dynamics - The relationship between the Producer Price Index (PPI) and market performance indicates that as PPI approaches zero, the certainty of returns in more prosperous sectors increases [21][30] - Historical data from 2010-2024 shows that industries positioned for stabilization in the previous year's reports tend to perform better during the spring market [5][18] - The transition from trading recovery to stability in market conditions is marked by the PPI moving from low to zero, influencing the overall market sentiment [21][30]