博时基金王祥：黄金年末获利了结，避险情绪或再度升温

Market Overview - The gold market experienced profit-taking in the last week of 2025, influenced by selling pressure from other precious metals, leading to increased price volatility during the holiday season [1][12] - The gold-silver ratio fell below 50, indicating a relatively restrained performance of gold amidst the precious metals rally since December [1][12] - Despite short-term emotional impacts from other metals' adjustments, the likelihood of a significant decline in gold prices remains low, with potential for arbitrage funds to enter the gold market [1][13] Geopolitical Events - A significant geopolitical event occurred on January 3, 2026, when the U.S. military launched strikes against Venezuela, creating uncertainty about the country's governance and potentially heightening risk aversion in the market [1][13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3%, significantly above the anticipated 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2][13] - Strong consumer spending contributed to this growth, with a notable acceleration to 3.5% in the same quarter [2][13] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% in the third quarter, and there was a rebound in core capital goods orders and shipments in October [2][13] Commodity Index Adjustments - Starting January 8, 2026, Goldman Sachs Commodity Index will undergo annual weight adjustments, resulting in a slight reduction in the weights of gold and silver due to their significant price increases in 2025 [2][13] - This adjustment may indicate that the short-term correction in the precious metals market is not yet over, although the marginal pressure on gold is not expected to be significant [2][13] Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is set to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January 2026, as Jerome Powell's term will end in May [2][14] - Trump expressed a preference for the new chair to lower interest rates when the economy and markets are performing well, rather than preemptively curtailing growth due to inflation concerns [2][14]