尿素市场迎“开门红”

Group 1 - The domestic urea market is expected to end its downward trend in November 2025 and enter a recovery phase, driven by steady demand release, reduced supply, and increased exports, with prices rising to over 1700 yuan per ton by January 4, 2026, marking a 9% increase from the market's lowest point in October 2025 [1] - Urea prices in 2025 showed a significant reduction in volatility, with the futures market's volatility decreasing from 33.14% in 2024 to 22.45% in 2025, indicating effective market regulation through supply and price stabilization policies [1][2] - The total domestic urea consumption in December 2025 reached approximately 5.38 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.49% and a year-on-year increase of 37.15% [2] Group 2 - The supply of urea has been tightening, with inventories decreasing for three consecutive months, dropping from 155.43 million tons in October 2025 to 106.89 million tons in December 2025, alongside a production loss of approximately 111.05 million tons due to maintenance [4] - The industrial demand for urea is expected to grow steadily, with the automotive urea consumption surpassing 5.8 million tons in 2023, doubling since 2020, and projected to maintain an annual growth rate of 6% to 8% through 2026 [3] - The export volume of urea reached 4.62 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a staggering increase of 1663.22% year-on-year, with new export quotas alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances [5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has been positively influenced by the announcement of new urea tenders, such as India's procurement of 1.5 million tons, which led to a rise in offshore prices and boosted domestic market confidence [5] - The long-term outlook for the urea market will depend on three core factors: the actual progress of new production capacity, the flexibility of export policies, and the pace of low-carbon transition, which could impact supply and profitability [6]