绿政东风催浪涌 铜锂领涨再生红！

Core Viewpoint - The dual catalysts of policy and funding have driven the non-ferrous metal market, with copper prices reaching historical highs and lithium stocks experiencing significant gains, highlighting green consumption policies as the core engine for industry growth [1][2]. Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have launched a green consumption promotion initiative, focusing on seven dimensions including green product supply and recycling, which opens growth opportunities for metals like copper, rare earths, and lithium [1]. - The initiative aligns with previous targets set by eight departments aiming for a recycled metal output exceeding 20 million tons by 2025-2026, indicating a strong policy support for the recycling industry [1]. Market Dynamics - Copper prices have surged due to strong demand from the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, with the copper usage in electric vehicles being 3-4 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, and a projected global copper shortage of 800,000 tons in 2026 [2]. - Lithium market performance remains robust, with carbonate lithium futures rising over 7% in a single day, driven by a reduction in overseas lithium production and easing pessimism regarding terminal demand [2]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing implementation of green consumption policies is expected to enhance structural opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, with a focus on three main investment themes: 1. Copper and rare earths with explosive demand and rigid supply, presenting valuation recovery opportunities for leading companies [3]. 2. The recycled metal sector, where companies with production advantages will stand out due to policy support [3]. 3. Long-term investment opportunities in the lithium sector, as sustained growth in new energy demand is anticipated to boost market conditions post short-term inventory pressures [3]. Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry is transitioning away from a broad-based increase towards structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of aligning with green consumption policies and focusing on clearly defined supply-demand gaps in niche markets as key strategies for navigating the 2026 market landscape [3].