Brent crude may fall to $50 per barrel by June 2026: SBI report

Core Viewpoint - Global crude oil prices are expected to decline significantly in 2026, with Brent crude projected to reach around USD 50 per barrel by June 2026, driven by rising inventories and softer global trends [1][2]. Crude Oil Price Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Brent crude prices could average USD 55 per barrel in Q1 2026, primarily due to inventory buildup exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The Indian crude basket, which has a strong correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, is anticipated to follow a similar softening trend [2]. Indian Basket Impact - Movements in Brent crude prices indicate a potential easing in the Indian crude basket, which is currently trending below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, suggesting lower prices ahead from the current level of USD 62.20 per barrel [3]. - The expected decline in the Indian basket price to USD 53.31 per barrel will be reflected in retail fuel prices due to the dynamic daily pricing mechanism [6]. Inflation Dynamics - A projected 14% correction in the Indian basket in Q4 FY26 could lead to a downward pressure of approximately 22 basis points on the CPI basket, assuming a 48% passthrough [7]. - This moderation is expected to lower average CPI inflation for FY27 below 3.4%, providing significant relief on the inflation front [4][7].