仲量联行：2026年全球商业地产市场迎来结构性转变关键期

Core Insights - The global commercial real estate market is entering a critical phase of structural transformation by 2026, driven by optimistic growth expectations in major economies, easing trade tensions, stabilizing inflation, and declining interest rates [1] - In China, the resilience of economic fundamentals and the demand for high-quality development lay the foundation for the long-term value of commercial real estate [1] Group 1: Trends Driving the Market - High-cost environments are prompting companies to focus on efficiency improvements, facing dual challenges of ongoing cost pressures and a shortage of quality property supply [6] - "Space experience" is replacing mere physical space as the core factor in attracting talent and tenants, influencing asset premiums [6] - AI applications are moving from pilot phases to large-scale implementation, with data and talent being critical for success; integration of building and energy systems is shifting from cost centers to value creation [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Economic uncertainty and high construction costs are suppressing new development activities globally, particularly in North America and Europe, where new supply of quality office and logistics spaces is expected to shrink further by 2026 [10] - In contrast, China's commercial real estate market is still experiencing high levels of new supply, with a growing demand for upgrading existing properties to meet modern office and consumer experience requirements [10] Group 3: Asset Value and Experience - By 2026, people will pay not just for "space" but for the "experience" it provides; buildings that fail to offer a good experience will quickly lose appeal and value [11] - In China's office market, companies are actively optimizing spaces to attract and retain talent, with investments in enhancing experiences becoming a new standard for competitiveness [14] Group 4: Technology and Energy Integration - Over 90% of real estate companies have initiated AI pilots, but less than 5% achieve their main objectives; the challenge lies in integrating scattered pilots into sustainable, scalable applications [15] - The relationship between real estate and energy is evolving from simple consumption to deep integration, with energy efficiency becoming a significant value driver for assets [16] Group 5: Investment Landscape - The commercial real estate investment landscape is shifting from being dominated by professional institutions to a more diversified participation, with regulatory changes and new technologies lowering investment barriers [20] - In China, investment activities in 2025 are characterized by caution and differentiation, with institutional investors remaining observant amid overall asset price adjustments, while certain asset classes like retail properties and long-term rental apartments continue to attract attention [21] Group 6: Focus on Asset Quality - The global commercial real estate market is returning to a focus on asset quality rather than just scale, with assets that enhance efficiency through refined operations and optimize tenant engagement showing greater resilience during market adjustments [23] - Real estate decisions are becoming more pragmatic, with the choice of office spaces extending beyond cost considerations to include talent strategies, as employees increasingly demand specific environmental and community integration features [23]