金价4400美元上方稳定涨势 仍有上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded strongly, trading around $4467.97 per ounce, supported by stability above $4400 and trading above the 50-day moving average, indicating a dominant short-term upward trend [1] Economic Data - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI remains at 51.8, indicating continued expansion, while the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 from 48.2 in November, signaling ongoing contraction in business activity [1] - These economic indicators have not significantly impacted dovish expectations, allowing the dollar to retreat from a near four-week high, which is favorable for non-yielding gold [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs in March and potentially cut rates again by the end of the year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks include U.S. military actions in Venezuela, political tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, unrest in Iran, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices faced resistance and a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4230, with further support at the 30-week moving average around $4000 [2] - Despite the potential for a pullback, the upward trend remains intact, with the price maintaining above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook [2] - Daily charts show a breakout above the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the congestion area of $4425-$4450, which could be a key trigger for bullish momentum [2] - The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating improved momentum, while the RSI is at 68, suggesting strong upward momentum, with a breakthrough above 70 reinforcing bullish arguments [2] - The 100-hour SMA at $4373.28 is expected to provide dynamic support, indicating a positive short-term bias [2]