供应扰动加剧且难扭转 沪铜期价再创新高

Core Viewpoint - Copper futures prices continue to rise, with the main contract reaching a new high of 104,820.00 CNY per ton, driven by supply concerns due to labor strikes and declining inventories [1] Group 1: Supply Concerns - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in northern Chile has heightened fears of copper shortages, with the mine expected to produce only 29,000 to 32,000 tons of copper this year, a small fraction of the global forecast of 24 million tons [2] - UBS analysts predict a copper deficit of 300,000 to 400,000 tons by 2026, increasing to 500,000 tons by 2027 [2] - LME registered copper inventories have dropped to 142,550 tons, the lowest since November 18 of the previous year, further supporting price increases [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures indicates that the strike at the Mantoverde mine exacerbates supply shortage concerns, with global copper concentrate supply growth expected to be below 1.5% by 2026 [4] - Yi De Futures notes that the recent strike in Chile has intensified worries about supply fragility, with domestic demand in the U.S. being less than 10% of global demand while U.S. inventories exceed 50% [4] - The combination of supply disruptions and increasing demand from sectors like green energy and computing is expected to maintain high copper prices in the short term [4]