2026年财政政策力度前瞻：赤字规模或接近6万亿元

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity and potentially increasing the deficit scale to nearly 6 trillion yuan, with new special bond issuance expected to reach 5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure to support key areas [2][4]. - The expected deficit scale for 2026 is close to 6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate projected to be no less than 4% [2][3]. Debt Management - The total new debt scale for 2026 is anticipated to rise to 15 trillion yuan, with new special bonds expected to reach 5 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The issuance of special bonds is deemed necessary to support infrastructure investment and stimulate economic growth [5][6]. Local Government Support - The central government plans to increase transfer payments to local governments, likely exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to alleviate local fiscal difficulties and encourage economic development [2][3]. - There is a focus on addressing local fiscal challenges and improving the local tax system, with potential reforms in consumption tax and local tax structures expected in 2026 [7]. Structural Adjustments - The fiscal expenditure in 2026 is expected to increase slightly compared to 2025, with a focus on structural adjustments to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4]. - The reform of the local tax system aims to incentivize local governments to cultivate tax sources and shift from production-oriented competition to consumption-oriented competition [7].