2折时代，GLP-1的神话幻灭？

Core Viewpoint - The price war for GLP-1 drugs has intensified unexpectedly, leading to significant price reductions across various platforms, impacting both consumers and manufacturers [1][2]. Price Reduction Dynamics - GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide have seen drastic price cuts, with some products dropping to as low as 450 yuan for 10mg and 750 yuan for 20mg, representing a reduction to 20% of their original prices [1][4]. - The price cuts are closely linked to the implementation of national medical insurance negotiations, which have included drugs like tirzepatide in the 2025 insurance catalog, prompting substantial price adjustments [3][4]. Market Competition and Strategy - Pharmaceutical companies are actively lowering prices to capture market share, with the pricing largely determined through negotiations with distributors and retailers [3][5]. - E-commerce platforms are under pressure to maintain competitive pricing, leading to further reductions in retail prices, with some platforms offering prices significantly lower than others [4][5]. Future Pricing Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the stability of these low prices, as e-commerce platforms indicate potential fluctuations in pricing based on promotional activities [2]. - The global trend of price reductions for GLP-1 drugs is evident, with agreements in the U.S. reducing monthly costs from over a thousand dollars to around 350 dollars [2]. Market Entry and Competition - The competitive landscape is changing, with new entrants like isunoglutide and other domestic GLP-1 drugs expected to launch, increasing pricing pressure on existing products [6][8]. - The expiration of key patents for semaglutide in 2026 will likely lead to an influx of generic alternatives, further intensifying competition and price pressures [6][7]. Industry Sentiment - The industry is shifting towards a "price for volume" strategy, where companies are willing to lower prices to gain access to the medical insurance system, which is crucial for market penetration [9][10]. - The distinction between diabetes treatment and weight loss indications is blurring, making it challenging for companies to maintain separate pricing strategies for these indications [10].