2026年首次成品油零售价调整或遇搁浅

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the international crude oil market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with limited fluctuations, and domestic retail fuel prices are likely to remain unchanged due to insufficient adjustment margins [1][2] - The analysis from Zhaochuang Information highlights that despite geopolitical tensions from the U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, the market is overshadowed by a supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness in the U.S., leading to cautious sentiment among downstream traders [1] - As of January 5, the reference crude oil change rate was at 1.07%, suggesting a potential increase of 45 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but the adjustment is expected to be stalled due to the change rate being below the 50 yuan per ton threshold [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, Zhaochuang Information anticipates that the geopolitical situation remains controllable, but the U.S. is still in a period of low oil consumption, leading to significant pressure on oil inventories and a forecast of weak downward trends in international oil prices [2] - The next pricing adjustment cycle is expected to start with a positive crude oil change rate, potentially leading to an increase of around 20 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for January 20 [2]