Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the increase in raw milk prices will directly boost the performance of Modern Dairy, a leading dairy farming company, and the sales of cull cows and calves will benefit from rising beef prices, providing significant earnings elasticity for the company in the future [1] Group 2 - The current national fresh milk contract price is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a notable increase in the proportion of breeding cows among small and medium-sized farms. The expected supply gap due to a potential shortage of breeding cows by 2026-2027 is highlighted [2] - The domestic milk price is currently lower than international prices, which is expected to suppress import volumes. However, with the gradual establishment of deep processing capacity and improvement in the macro economy, raw milk demand is anticipated to marginally increase, with prices expected to stabilize and rebound by 2026 [2] Group 3 - Historical high prices for live cattle in Shandong have exceeded 36 yuan/kg, with a significant industry capacity reduction of over 22% expected in 2024. Global cattle inventory is trending down since 2023, leading to record high global beef prices and a marginal decrease in exportable beef supply over the next 2-3 years [3] - The current average price of live cattle in China is about 27 yuan/kg, and the combination of domestic capacity reduction and rising overseas prices is expected to drive domestic live cattle prices to historical highs [3] Group 4 - Given the anticipated sustained upturn in industry conditions through 2026, the company is assigned a 10X PE for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 2.04 HKD per share, with a "buy" rating indicating significant growth potential as industry conditions improve [4]