景顺展望2026固收前景：新兴市场机遇与挑战并存 投资级信贷韧性延续

Group 1: Economic Trends in Asia - The growth dynamics in Asian emerging markets are shifting, with geopolitical and tariff-related risks becoming major drivers for the bond market, impacting economic fundamentals and development prospects [1] - Despite strong economic growth in the region, it is partially attributed to exporters' "advance shipments," and external growth momentum is expected to weaken in 2026 due to soft global demand and high base effects [1] - Different Asian economies are adopting varied strategies to cope with reduced external demand, such as Indonesia and Thailand increasing subsidies for low-income households, India implementing new GST reforms, and China focusing on industrial transformation [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation levels in Asia are continuing to decline, exceeding market expectations, which provides greater room for monetary policy easing by central banks [1] - Unlike many other regions, Asian emerging markets have not experienced significant post-pandemic inflation spikes, allowing for a generally accommodative monetary policy stance across the region [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - In the hard currency sovereign and quasi-sovereign bond market, countries with relatively less fiscal stimulus maintain robust fundamentals, but further upside may be limited due to narrowed spreads [2] - Local currency bond markets favor economies with prudent fiscal policies, with expectations of continued monetary easing and significant downward potential for government bond yields [2] - The performance of local currency bonds is also influenced by exchange rate trends, with the Indian government’s focus on growth without excessive public spending making it particularly attractive [3] Group 4: Investment Grade Credit Resilience - Since 2025, Asian investment-grade bonds have shown solid returns despite global uncertainties, supported by stable macroeconomic fundamentals and limited new debt issuance [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that interest rate trends will remain a key driver for total returns in Asian investment-grade bonds, with a focus on the U.S. economic growth outlook [4][5] - The current spread levels indicate limited additional returns for taking on excessive credit risk, with the yield spread between BBB and A-rated bonds at approximately 33 basis points, reflecting high valuations [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The technical factors in the Asian market remain favorable, with a projected $168 billion in investment-grade bonds maturing in 2026, leading to a low new issuance environment [6] - A defensive allocation strategy is recommended due to high current valuations, focusing on yield spreads and diversifying credit exposure to enhance portfolio stability [6] - Active management of country and sector allocations is essential to navigate external shocks and seize investment opportunities effectively [6]