2026年首场日本国债拍卖稳健 但加息预期压制需求前景

Group 1 - The auction of Japan's 10-year government bonds was successful, attracting many investors seeking high yields, with a subscription ratio of 3.30 compared to 3.59 in the last issuance and an average of 3.24 over the past 12 months [1] - Japan's government bond yields have recently risen to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 this week [1] - The market is weighing the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path and Prime Minister Kishida's spending plans, leading to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rates [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the strong demand for the first Japanese government bond auction of the year was within recent ranges, although the bond futures softened post-issuance [2] - Most observers expect the next interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan around mid-year, but some believe it could occur sooner due to the weak yen [2] - The Japanese government plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following the announcement of a record budget draft for the new fiscal year starting in April [3]