上游挺价意愿强烈 多晶硅短期或维持高位震荡状态

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, with the main contract reaching a peak of 60,200 yuan and currently trading at 59,555 yuan, reflecting a 2.01% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The short-term outlook for polysilicon prices is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation due to reduced weekly production and ongoing "production reduction and sales control" strategies, with estimated production for January at 105,000 to 110,000 tons [2]. - Downstream demand remains weak, with silicon wafer and battery cell prices rebounding from low levels, but production continues to incur losses, leading to reduced operating rates and a drop in scheduled production to around 30 GW [2]. - The current market sentiment shows a strong willingness to support prices despite weak supply and demand fundamentals, with spot prices adjusted to 65,000 yuan per ton, and some transactions exceeding 60,000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guanzhou Futures suggests that the market should be treated with a range-bound approach, as the willingness of upstream suppliers to maintain prices is strong, and the price center for silicon materials is expected to rise due to industry self-discipline and storage platform support [3]. - However, the overall recovery in terminal demand is still pending, and the pressure from inventory has not been fully alleviated, leading to a balanced market with no clear directional drive [3]. - Donghai Futures anticipates continued high-level fluctuations in polysilicon prices, noting that the latest quotes for N-type materials and components have remained stable, while market sentiment has cooled due to regulatory adjustments by exchanges [4].