节后下游消费端逐步恢复 沪锌期货仍处反弹形态中

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals saw a collective rise, with the main contract for zinc futures reported at 24,325.00 CNY/ton, marking a significant increase of 2.40% [1] - The market's reaction to geopolitical conflicts has been muted, while the unexpected contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar and boosting metal prices [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - From a global perspective, the cyclical increase in zinc supply is gradually materializing, but the transmission of increased production from mines to smelting has been delayed due to reductions in overseas smelting operations [2] - Despite an increase in zinc mining over the past year, global smelting capacity remains relatively excessive compared to mining capacity, and this situation of increased refined zinc production and low processing fees is expected to persist until 2026 [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - The end-of-year consumption season shows clear signs of a slowdown; however, due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year, there remains a rigid demand for purchases [2] - The recovery of profits for overseas smelting companies is leading to a gradual resumption of production, coupled with domestic refined zinc exports, which has alleviated the tight supply-demand situation overseas [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The zinc concentrate treatment charges (TC) have significantly decreased in January, and domestic smelters are undergoing maintenance, resulting in weaker supply-side pressure [2] - As downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, along with bullish expectations for the first quarter of 2026, there is an anticipated influx of long positions in the market, driving prices higher [2] - The current spot market pricing is somewhat chaotic, with downstream buyers showing insufficient willingness to purchase at high prices, and short-term zinc futures are expected to consolidate around the 23,800 CNY level [2] - Technically, zinc futures remain in a rebound pattern, with a solid bottom and resistance levels between 24,000 and 24,200 CNY/ton [2]