Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-06 07:09Core Viewpoint - The focus on Wall Street has shifted from a mere "arms race" to "commercialization" in the context of rising infrastructure investments, with 2026 being a pivotal year for AI announcements that could reshape market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][15]. Group 1: Potential Major Events Reshaping Competition - Amazon is likely to sign an "Agentic Commerce" agreement with OpenAI, which could protect its Prime membership system and include revenue sharing from advertising [1][16]. - Google and Apple are nearing a deal to authorize Gemini for Siri, potentially enhancing Apple's AI capabilities and expanding Google's consumer reach [1][17]. - Meta is expected to invest over $100 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, focusing on AI capabilities, including AI video creation tools for its platforms [1][18]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Uber aims to expand its Level 4 autonomous driving commitments in Asia, potentially partnering with major OEMs and software providers like Nvidia [1][18]. - Booking is likely to introduce a chat-based booking feature in 2026, investing $170 million to enhance its AI capabilities and compete with rivals [1][19]. - DoorDash is expanding its partnership with Waymo for autonomous delivery services, with plans to launch in new metropolitan areas [1][19]. Group 3: IPOs and Market Valuation Impacts - Companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI are potential IPO candidates in 2026, which could significantly impact the valuation of major cloud service providers [1][21]. - Successful AI IPOs may serve as catalysts for established companies like Google and AWS, as private AI companies currently have higher revenue multiples than public ones [1][21]. Group 4: Advanced Scenarios and Strategic Shifts - Amazon may consider acquiring AI model technology to enhance its Nova model, which currently lags behind competitors [1][22]. - Meta is expected to release a closed-source LLM named Avocado, which could create new revenue streams if it performs well [1][22]. - Google might expand its TPU sales from cloud hosting to direct enterprise sales, potentially increasing its perceived technological value [1][23]. Group 5: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - If the U.S. relaxes regulations on importing Chinese autonomous vehicles, it could significantly reduce operational costs for companies like Uber and Lyft [1][27].