供应宽松格局将继续主导 预计白糖期价窄幅震荡

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The sugar industry in Bihar, India, is set to expand with plans to increase sugarcane cultivation by 300,000 hectares, which may lead to the reopening of closed sugar mills and the establishment of new ones [1]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Pricing - As of the end of December 2025, Guangdong's sugar production reached 86,600 tons, down from 116,300 tons in the same period last year, with a sugar extraction rate of 8.72%, compared to 9.397% the previous year [1]. - The current prices for sugar in Guangdong are 5,310 CNY/ton for sulfured sugar and 5,550 CNY/ton for carbonated sugar, with a recent increase of 10 CNY/ton [1]. - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil is significantly lower than local prices, with in-quota sugar costing 4,049 CNY/ton and out-of-quota sugar at 5,129 CNY/ton, indicating a price difference of 1,301 CNY/ton and 221 CNY/ton, respectively, compared to Guangxi sugar prices [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply - The overall sugar market is characterized by an increase in supply both globally and domestically, with moderate and weak consumer demand, leading to a loose supply-demand balance [2]. - Domestic sugar import tariff quotas and industry regulation policies provide a solid policy support base, while the cost of imported sugar serves as an effective price anchor for futures [2]. - The expectation of global sugar surplus may intensify, potentially impacting domestic sugar mill production costs [2]. Group 3: Short-term Market Trends - In the raw sugar market, Thailand's production is gradually increasing, but there are no new driving factors in the short term, leading to slight price rebounds influenced by other commodities [3]. - Following the New Year, there has been an increase in inquiries, and a round of replenishment purchases is expected before the Spring Festival, suggesting a temporary market balance [3]. - Despite short-term stability, medium-term pressures remain, with attention on production and sales data from major producing provinces in December [3].