供需双增2025年12月生猪屠宰量增幅明显 预计1月屠宰量或先减后增

Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in December 2025, driven by a faster slaughter pace and seasonal demand, with a notable rise in slaughter volume anticipated in January 2026 [1][3][6] Supply Analysis - In December 2025, the outflow plan of live pigs from 211 monitored large-scale breeding enterprises increased by 3.77% month-on-month, indicating a stable supply [3] - The slaughter volume for December showed a significant increase, with an average daily slaughter of 215,700 pigs, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 15.22% [1][3] - The market is experiencing a phenomenon of accelerated outflow as breeding groups aim to meet their outflow plans and capitalize on rising pig prices [3][5] Demand Analysis - The demand for heavier pigs has surged due to the seasonal peak for cured meats in southern regions, alongside increased orders from slaughter enterprises driven by the winter solstice and New Year preparations [3][5] - The average price of white strip pork in December 2025 decreased by 26.21% year-on-year, stimulating terminal pork consumption and supporting increased slaughter demand [5] Future Outlook - The supply of heavier pigs may be limited in early January 2026 due to previous weight reduction practices in breeding, although demand is expected to rise as the lunar month approaches [5][6] - After the New Year holiday, terminal demand is anticipated to decrease, but stocking activities may resume as the lunar month progresses [6]