My Biggest Concerns As We Enter 2026

Group 1: US Monetary Policy - Concerns exist that a potential replacement of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair by a more dovish candidate could lead to significant rate cuts for political reasons, potentially steepening the yield curve and causing inflation to spike [5][8] - The current Fed Funds target range is 3.50-3.75%, with an Effective Fed Funds Rate of 3.64%, and there are expectations for further cuts, possibly down to 1% [7][8] - The average maturity of US government debt is about six years, and significant rate cuts could provoke negative reactions from bond investors, complicating the situation [12] Group 2: AI Bubble - There are concerns that the AI bubble may burst, leading to a widespread selloff similar to the dotcom bust, with the combined market cap of the ten largest US stocks exceeding the GDP of several major economies [15][16] - US equities, even excluding Big Tech, are trading at high valuations compared to other regions, raising concerns about a potential global impact if a selloff occurs [19][20] - The performance of stocks with no revenues and unprofitable companies indicates a trend of hyped investor behavior, which could signal an impending correction [21] Group 3: Climate Change - There is a worry that increased political control over climate change agendas could lead to irrational government policies that may harm the economy [25][26] - The rising average temperature is expected to exacerbate economic damage, prompting political leaders to make decisions that may not be economically sound [25][30] - The concept of Energy Return On Investment (EROI) is highlighted as crucial for understanding the economic viability of energy sources, with current political narratives potentially misrepresenting the costs and benefits of renewable energy [27][28]