开年狂飙，2026金银牛市延续“暴力美学”……

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market has shown little change at the beginning of 2026 compared to 2025, with rising global stock markets and significant increases in gold and silver prices continuing their historic bull market [1] - Gold prices surged by 2.7% to $4444.52 per ounce in the first complete trading week of the new year, nearing the record high of $4550 set on December 26 [1] - Silver prices experienced a dramatic increase, jumping 5.1% in one day and approaching the $80 mark, with the Shanghai silver futures contract rising by 8.00% to ¥19630.00 per kilogram [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of President Maduro, is viewed as a key factor driving the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical tensions escalate or if upcoming U.S. data indicates a need for more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may reach new record highs [2] - The situation in Venezuela is seen as a catalyst for further price increases in gold and silver, which have already seen substantial gains of 64% and 147% respectively over the past year [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently supported above the trend line of the latest bull market, with support at around $4300 and resistance at the historical high from December [3] - Silver has entered a parabolic uptrend, with a steep short-term upward trajectory and support at approximately $72, while also facing resistance at historical highs [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The non-commercial net long positions in gold have increased, but remain low relative to gold price performance, primarily held by speculators [4] - In silver, non-commercial net positions have missed one of the most extreme short squeeze events, indicating strong underlying buying interest [14] - The volatility index for silver has reached unstable levels, suggesting a high-risk environment for pricing [15] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts from Crescat Capital remain bullish on the silver market, suggesting that the current rally is far from over despite market consensus leaning towards mean reversion [18] - UBS highlights the dual risks facing the gold-silver ratio, with potential scenarios that could lead to significant price movements for silver based on industrial demand and inflation concerns [22]