达利欧年度复盘：美元等法币贬值 美股高回报只是“计价幻觉” 黄金跑赢一切

Group 1: Core Insights - The core narrative emphasizes that the significant investment story of 2025 is not the strong performance of U.S. stocks, but rather the dramatic changes in currency values and global asset allocation shifts, with gold emerging as the true winner [4][10]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Performance - The U.S. dollar depreciated against several currencies, including a 39% drop against gold, leading to a "valuation illusion" where U.S. stock performance appears strong in dollar terms but is weak when viewed through stronger currencies [10][11]. - The S&P 500 index recorded an 18% total return in dollar terms, but when measured against gold, it actually declined by 28% [10][12]. - Non-U.S. markets, including Europe, China, and Japan, outperformed U.S. stocks, with emerging markets showing an overall return of 34% [10][12]. Group 3: Economic and Political Dynamics - The disparity in profit distribution, where capitalists benefit more than workers, is leading to political unrest among the lower 60% of the population, potentially resulting in significant political conflict by 2027-2028 [6][8]. - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics is increasing military spending and sanctions, further diminishing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8][19]. Group 4: Market Valuation and Investment Risks - U.S. stock valuations are seen as peaking, with equity risk premiums at historically low levels, indicating limited potential for future returns [14][15]. - Non-liquid markets, such as private equity and real estate, are under pressure due to rising debt extension challenges and low liquidity premiums, which may lead to value declines in these assets [7][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The anticipated political turmoil and wealth distribution conflicts are expected to have profound impacts on market dynamics, particularly as the wealth gap widens [8][16]. - The potential for rising interest rates due to supply-demand pressures could negatively affect credit and equity markets, further complicating the investment landscape [14][15].