智通财经网·2026-01-06 08:40Core Viewpoint - The paper industry chain is currently characterized by "high concentration at the resource end and decentralized competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource that holds strong pricing power [2][3] Industry Characteristics - After the paper bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, while the paper production capacity clearance shows a "long tail effect" [2] - The industry is experiencing a slow clearance speed due to high single-ton investment costs and significant depreciation pressure, leading to a reliance on effective cost transmission for profitability stability [2] Strategic Shift - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration, with companies now focusing on using their own fiber to hedge against the volatility of pulp prices [3] - This integration essentially transforms unstable processing profits into stable resource premiums, allowing leading companies to transition from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [3] Market Outlook - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected to emerge by 2026, as the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production [4] - As demand marginally improves, the price center for pulp is anticipated to recover in 2026, with leading companies possessing full industry chain self-sufficiency continuing to capitalize on the premium opportunities from "manufacturing" to "resource revaluation" [4] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Sun Paper (002078.SZ), Nine Dragons Paper (02689), and Suzano (SUZ.US) [5]